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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model