Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 19

(13:32) 5-J.Schum punts 44 yards to IND 24, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.70 EP
75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model