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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 25

What Actually Happened

(3:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (55-N.Irving).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.89 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model