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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 56 yards to TB 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-42-C.Geathers.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model