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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model