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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to LA 0, impetus ends at LA 1, Center-82-M.Leach. 21-J.Jenkins to LA 5 for 5 yards (26-R.Johnson; 97-J.Mauro). Penalty on LA-21-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.36 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP