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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
STL Home

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

ARI
71.9%
STL
28.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Nick Foles (LA) -0.231 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.290 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
STL 18
Projected margin: ARI by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ARI

Andre Ellington RB Out Toe
Jerraud Powers CB Out Calf
Frostee Rucker DT Out Ankle
Cory Redding DT Doubtful Ankle
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hamstring
Jonathan Cooper G Probable Knee
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Ankle
Tony Jefferson S Probable Thigh
Patrick Peterson CB Probable Ankle
Ed Stinson DT Probable Groin
John Brown WR Probable Hamstring

STL

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
Trumaine Johnson CB Doubtful Thigh
Robert Quinn DE Doubtful Back
Greg Zuerlein K Doubtful right Hip
Case Keenum QB Questionable Concussion
Rob Havenstein T Probable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
STL 3

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:12 TD ARI (10:12) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 14-J.Nelson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Brockers]. ARI 6 – STL 0
  • Q2 00:10 FG ARI (:10) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 10 – STL 0
  • Q3 11:32 FG LA (11:32) 2-Z.Hocker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 10 – STL 3
  • Q3 05:58 TD ARI (5:58) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-21-J.Jenkins was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. ARI 16 – STL 3
  • Q3 01:37 TD ARI (1:37) 33-K.Williams left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – STL 3
  • Q4 04:12 FG ARI (4:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 27 – STL 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:58) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:29) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to LA 26, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for 9 yards (59-A.Fua; 82-M.Leach).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 20 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 30%

    (1:54) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 36%

    (14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 62%

    (10:52) 2-D.Butler punts 27 yards to LA 10, impetus ends at LA 4, Center-82-M.Leach. 53-D.Bates to LA 10 for no gain (96-K.Martin).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 12 for 3 yards (53-D.Bates, 54-B.Hager).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 54%

    (2:17) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to LA 0, impetus ends at LA 1, Center-82-M.Leach. 21-J.Jenkins to LA 5 for 5 yards (26-R.Johnson; 97-J.Mauro). Penalty on LA-21-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to ARI 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 40 for 15 yards (15-B.Marquez).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (:10) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:59) 2-D.Butler punts 57 yards to LA 30, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Austin to ARI 3 for 67 yards (20-D.Bucannon). PENALTY on LA-34-C.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 41.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (11:32) 2-Z.Hocker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to ARI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 19 for 12 yards (15-B.Marquez).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:09) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to LA 40, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

    (9:35) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 89-J.Cook to ARI 9 for 10 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (8:51) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 15-B.Marquez to ARI 4 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu) [22-T.Jefferson].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (4:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.