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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(14:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model