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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 87

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 2-D.Butler punts 57 yards to LA 30, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Austin to ARI 3 for 67 yards (20-D.Bucannon). PENALTY on LA-34-C.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model