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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 2-Z.Hocker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.58 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model