Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(4:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to ARI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 19 for 12 yards (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model