Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 24

(13:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model