4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 15-B.Marquez to ARI 4 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu) [22-T.Jefferson].

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP