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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model