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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model