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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to LA 26, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for 9 yards (59-A.Fua; 82-M.Leach).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model