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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.61 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model