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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model