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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to BAL 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 29 for 17 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.99 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP