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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BAL
49.0%
MIA
51.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): -0.035 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Wind 21 mph
  • MIA defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BAL

Maxx Williams TE Out Concussion
Marlon Brown WR Doubtful Back
Eugene Monroe T Doubtful Shoulder
Rick Wagner T Probable Not Injury Related
Chris Canty DE Probable Not Injury Related
Kelechi Osemele G Probable Knee
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Rishard Matthews WR Out Ribs
Earl Mitchell DT Out Calf
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Ankle
Mike Pouncey C Questionable Foot
Jay Ajayi RB Probable Shoulder
Branden Albert T Probable Not Injury Related
Shamiel Gary S Probable Foot
Jelani Jenkins LB Probable Ankle
Jarvis Landry WR Probable Knee
Chris McCain LB Probable Hip
Koa Misi LB Probable Abdomen
Jordan Phillips DT Probable Shoulder
Kelvin Sheppard LB Probable Hamstring
Dion Sims TE Probable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 13
–
MIA 15

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 01:54 TD MIA (1:54) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 01:34 TD MIA (1:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle intended for 37-J.Allen INTERCEPTED by 79-D.Shelby at BAL 22. 79-D.Shelby for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:33 FG BAL (:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – MIA 15
  • Q3 11:57 TD BAL (11:57) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 37-J.Allen for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – MIA 15
  • Q4 10:21 FG BAL (10:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – MIA 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to BAL 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 29 for 17 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:15) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 67 yards to MIA 0, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-B.Grimes to MIA 15 for 15 yards (50-A.McClellan).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 13%

    (9:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to BAL 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to MIA 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 19%

    (:40) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to BAL 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.Webb to BAL 18 for 7 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (6:56) 8-M.Schaub up the middle to MIA 2 for no gain (97-J.Phillips).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to BAL 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 25 for 10 yards (35-W.Aikens; 92-J.Denney).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to BAL 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 26 for 1 yard (36-T.Lippett). PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 26.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for no gain (50-A.McClellan). PENALTY on MIA-36-T.Lippett, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:42) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 27 yards to BAL 35, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:42) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 40 for 12 yards (36-T.Lippett).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (10:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 58 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-42-S.Paysinger.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 20 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (4:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 46%

    (2:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.