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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 8-M.Schaub up the middle to MIA 2 for no gain (97-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +4.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model