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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 67 yards to MIA 0, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-B.Grimes to MIA 15 for 15 yards (50-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model