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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.22 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model