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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to BAL 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 13% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 87% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model