Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(3:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to MIA 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.88 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model