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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to BAL 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.Webb to BAL 18 for 7 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model