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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 7-A.Davis pass incomplete short right to 82-G.Barnidge (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model