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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

10-2 HC Marvin Lewis
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

2-10 HC Mike Pettine
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 ET FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CIN
63.8%
CLE
36.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Austin Davis (CLE) +0.200 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.264 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Austin Davis in place of Josh McCown)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 24 17–31
–
CLE 19 12–26
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Doubtful Neck
Chris Lewis-Harris CB Doubtful Ribs
George Iloka S Questionable Groin
Leon Hall CB Questionable Back
Adam Jones CB Questionable Foot
Andre Smith T Probable Not Injury Related
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee
Emmanuel Lamur LB Probable Ankle
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Ankle

CLE

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Justin Gilbert CB Out Concussion
Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Joel Bitonio G Questionable Ankle
Nate Orchard LB Questionable Groin
Randy Starks DE Questionable Knee
Armonty Bryant DE Probable Elbow
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 37
–
CLE 3

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:48 TD CIN (3:48) 14-A.Dalton up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 13:45 TD CIN (13:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 0
  • Q2 06:28 FG CIN (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – CLE 0
  • Q2 03:24 FG CIN (3:24) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 20 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG CLE (:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CIN 20 – CLE 3
  • Q3 07:55 TD CIN (7:55) 32-J.Hill left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-58-C.Kirksey, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 26 – CLE 3
  • Q3 00:46 TD CIN (:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 82-M.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – CLE 3
  • Q4 05:49 FG CIN (5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 37 – CLE 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:37) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-81-T.Kroft.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 34%

    (8:34) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 40 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 16 for 12 yards (53-C.Robertson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (5:11) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to CLE 5 for 2 yards (71-D.Shelton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 56%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis sacked at CIN 46 for -10 yards (90-M.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 44%

    (10:13) 7-A.Davis pass incomplete short right to 82-G.Barnidge (36-S.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%

    (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (3:24) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 73%

    (11:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Dunlap), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:44) 8-A.Lee punts 45 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 38 for 6 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 81%

    (9:24) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to CLE 21 for 4 yards (31-D.Whitner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:33) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to CIN 42, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (1:12) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Tate.

    See the full breakdown →