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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.77 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model