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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-81-T.Kroft.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.44 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP