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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 8-A.Lee punts 45 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 38 for 6 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.15 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model