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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to CLE 21 for 4 yards (31-D.Whitner).

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model