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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 2 at the 29
Cincinnati Bengals 37 – Cleveland Browns 3
What Actually Happened
(1:12) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Tate.
The Three Options
GO
+1.39 EP
What Happened
-
58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.82 EP
- 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -0.64 EP
KICK
+1.58 EP
Model's Pick
- 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
- 27% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
