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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 11 at the 36
Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7
What Actually Happened
(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis sacked at CIN 46 for -10 yards (90-M.Johnson).
The Three Options
GO
+0.04 EP
What Happened
-
27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
- 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK
+0.31 EP
Model's Pick
- 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
- 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT
+0.20 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
