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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 44

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model