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Dallas Cowboys

4-8 HC Jason Garrett
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Washington Commanders

5-7 HC Jay Gruden
Monday 2015-12-07 · 20:30 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DAL
36.9%
WAS
63.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Matt Cassel (DAL): -0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DAL starting Matt Cassel in place of Tony Romo)
  • DAL defense: +0.016 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than WAS
  • WAS defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21 14–28
–
WAS 23 16–30
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

DAL

Tony Romo QB Out left Shoulder
Jeff Heath S Questionable Shoulder
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Morris Claiborne CB Probable Hamstring

WAS

Perry Riley LB Out Foot
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Knee
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Finger
Derek Carrier TE Questionable Ankle
Deshazor Everett CB Questionable Hamstring
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Shoulder
DeSean Jackson WR Probable Illness
Chris Baker DE Probable Illness
Will Blackmon CB Probable Shoulder
Dashon Goldson S Probable Knee, Hamstring
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Toe
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Knee
Terrance Knighton DT Probable Migraine
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 19
–
WAS 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:36 FG DAL (6:36) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG WAS (:02) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 3 – WAS 3
  • Q3 10:37 FG WAS (10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 3 – WAS 6
  • Q3 03:39 FG DAL (3:39) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – WAS 6
  • Q4 14:19 FG WAS (14:19) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 6 – WAS 9
  • Q4 04:25 FG DAL (4:25) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 9 – WAS 9
  • Q4 01:19 TD DAL (1:19) 20-D.McFadden right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – WAS 9
  • Q4 00:49 TD WAS (:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – WAS 15
  • Q4 00:14 FG DAL (:14) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 19 – WAS 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:05) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at WAS 49 for 23 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on DAL-15-D.Street, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 44.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 64%

    (11:17) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to DAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-14-R.Grant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:43) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (84-J.Hanna). PENALTY on WAS-59-C.Fields, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 47.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:20) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to DAL 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (5:35) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:32) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 41 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 20-J.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:22) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to WAS 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-D.Jackson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (11:57) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (6:36) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%

    (:02) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 93%

    (3:39) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (14:19) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (7:29) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (4:25) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:29) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 32 for 4 yards (35-D.Phillips).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:47) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-D.Jackson to WAS 9 for -7 yards (38-J.Heath). FUMBLES (38-J.Heath), RECOVERED by DAL-6-C.Jones at WAS 15. 6-C.Jones to WAS 15 for no gain (11-D.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 64%

    (:14) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →