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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Monday 2015-12-07 · 20:30 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DAL
40.4%
WAS
59.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Matt Cassel (DAL): -0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DAL starting Matt Cassel in place of Tony Romo)
  • WAS offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DAL

Tony Romo QB Out left Shoulder
Jeff Heath S Questionable Shoulder
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Morris Claiborne CB Probable Hamstring

WAS

Perry Riley LB Out Foot
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Knee
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Finger
Derek Carrier TE Questionable Ankle
Deshazor Everett CB Questionable Hamstring
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Shoulder
DeSean Jackson WR Probable Illness
Chris Baker DE Probable Illness
Will Blackmon CB Probable Shoulder
Dashon Goldson S Probable Knee, Hamstring
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Toe
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Knee
Terrance Knighton DT Probable Migraine
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 19
–
WAS 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:36 FG DAL (6:36) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG WAS (:02) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 3 – WAS 3
  • Q3 10:37 FG WAS (10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 3 – WAS 6
  • Q3 03:39 FG DAL (3:39) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – WAS 6
  • Q4 14:19 FG WAS (14:19) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 6 – WAS 9
  • Q4 04:25 FG DAL (4:25) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 9 – WAS 9
  • Q4 01:19 TD DAL (1:19) 20-D.McFadden right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – WAS 9
  • Q4 00:49 TD WAS (:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – WAS 15
  • Q4 00:14 FG DAL (:14) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 19 – WAS 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:05) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at WAS 49 for 23 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on DAL-15-D.Street, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 44.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 64%

    (11:17) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to DAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-14-R.Grant.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:43) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (84-J.Hanna). PENALTY on WAS-59-C.Fields, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 47.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:20) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to DAL 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (5:35) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:32) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 41 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 20-J.Johnson).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:22) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to WAS 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-D.Jackson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (11:57) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (6:36) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%

    (:02) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 93%

    (3:39) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (14:19) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (7:29) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (4:25) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:29) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 32 for 4 yards (35-D.Phillips).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:47) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-D.Jackson to WAS 9 for -7 yards (38-J.Heath). FUMBLES (38-J.Heath), RECOVERED by DAL-6-C.Jones at WAS 15. 6-C.Jones to WAS 15 for no gain (11-D.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 64%

    (:14) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.