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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 9 at the 20
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(6:36) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
The Three Options
GO
+0.65 EP
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP
KICK
+1.44 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
