Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 81

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at WAS 49 for 23 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on DAL-15-D.Street, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.97 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model