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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model