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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 36

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to DAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-14-R.Grant.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP