4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model