Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 80

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(2:32) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 41 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 20-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model