Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 87

Buffalo Bills 21 – Houston Texans 13

(7:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to HOU 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model