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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

HOU
43.9%
BUF
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (BUF): +0.130 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
BUF 24
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

HOU

Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Akeem Dent LB Probable Hamstring
DeAndre Hopkins WR Probable Hamstring
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Charles James CB Probable Foot
Ben Jones C Probable Hand
Johnathan Joseph CB Probable Knee
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow
John Simon LB Probable Groin
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Probable Shoulder
Alfred Blue RB Probable Back
J.J. Watt DE Probable Groin

BUF

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
John Miller G Out Ankle
Karlos Williams RB Out Shoulder
Seantrel Henderson T Doubtful Illness
Marcus Easley WR Probable Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Probable Back
Bacarri Rambo S Probable Knee
Tyrod Taylor QB Probable right Shoulder
Mario Williams DE Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 21
–
BUF 30

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:41 TD BUF (9:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. HOU 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 04:00 TD HOU (4:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Screen pass, caught at BUF 8. HOU 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – BUF 13
  • Q2 04:06 TD HOU (4:06) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 22-C.Polk for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at BUF 5. PENALTY on HOU-10-D.Hopkins, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 12 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:34 TD BUF (:34) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-R.Woods for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. HOU 13 – BUF 20
  • Q4 09:19 TD HOU (9:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone, near sideline. HOU 19 – BUF 21
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 85-C.Clay for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at HOU 10. HOU 21 – BUF 27
  • Q4 00:37 FG BUF (:37) 2-D.Carpenter 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. HOU 21 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:22) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to BUF 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James. PENALTY on HOU-31-C.James, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 42.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 16 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 18%

    (11:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen. PENALTY on HOU-28-A.Blue, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to HOU 40, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to HOU 32, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-81-M.Easley.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%

    (11:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to BUF 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to HOU 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%

    (4:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 68%

    (:36) 2-D.Carpenter 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 35%

    (13:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen. PENALTY on HOU-45-J.Prosch, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 64 yards to HOU 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to HOU 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 40 for 16 yards (53-M.Bullough). PENALTY on HOU-28-A.Blue, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 22%

    (3:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to HOU 6, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to BUF 45, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at HOU 13 for 42 yards (40-K.Drummond). Return credited to BUF 45 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-33-R.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 45.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Shorts III (37-N.Robey) [20-C.Graham]. Receiver at HOU 30, coverage at HOU 33.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (:37) 2-D.Carpenter 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.