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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 45

Houston Texans 13 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen. PENALTY on HOU-45-J.Prosch, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model