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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 21 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to HOU 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model