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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 27 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) 2-D.Carpenter 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model