4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 29-P.Cox to TEN 23 for 2 yards (46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP