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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

JAX
49.7%
TEN
50.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

JAX

Toby Gerhart RB Out Groin
Allen Hurns WR Out Concussion
Dan Skuta LB Out Groin
Bernard Pierce RB Questionable Calf
Bryan Walters WR Questionable Back
Neal Sterling WR Questionable Illness
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Johnathan Cyprien S Probable Abdomen
Josh Evans S Probable Concussion
Marcedes Lewis TE Probable Ankle
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee
Jason Myers K Probable Back

TEN

Mike Martin DT Out Knee
Dexter McCluster RB Out Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Shoulder
Marqueston Huff S Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Fasano TE Probable Shoulder
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee
Al Woods DT Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 39
–
TEN 42

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 36 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:21 TD TEN (4:21) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 88-C.Stevens for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD JAX (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 13-R.Greene for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – TEN 7
  • Q2 08:51 TD TEN (8:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – TEN 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 24-T.Yeldon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – TEN 14
  • Q2 00:05 TD TEN (:05) 26-A.Andrews left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – TEN 20
  • Q3 05:01 TD JAX (5:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 18 – TEN 21
  • Q4 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – TEN 27
  • Q4 11:59 TD JAX (11:59) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 25 – TEN 28
  • Q4 10:14 TD JAX (10:14) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 31 – TEN 28
  • Q4 08:45 TD TEN (8:45) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left guard for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 32 – TEN 34
  • Q4 07:54 TD TEN (7:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles Aborted. 61-S.Wisniewski FUMBLES at JAX 26, RECOVERED by TEN-59-W.Woodyard at JAX 3. 59-W.Woodyard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 32 – TEN 41
  • Q4 06:32 TD JAX (6:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 38 – TEN 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:39) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 29-P.Cox to TEN 23 for 2 yards (46-C.Tinker).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to JAX 29, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-R.Greene to JAX 43 for 14 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 25%

    (11:02) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:14) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 58 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 29-P.Cox to TEN 37 for 9 yards (86-C.Harbor).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 36 for 4 yards (52-S.Johnson).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%

    (2:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to JAX 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at JAX 6 for -11 yards (sack split by 21-D.Searcy and 97-K.Klug).