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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 58 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 29-P.Cox to TEN 37 for 9 yards (86-C.Harbor).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 44, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model